On a recent episode of "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip," NBC's highbrow drama about life behind the scenes on a comedy sketch show, characters debated whether to allow a magazine reporter on the set.
The writers didn't want the reporter hanging around. But the network president, played by Amanda Peet, argued for access because of the magazine's readership: affluent "alpha consumers" who are "the first to know, the first to try and the first to buy." The people advertisers swoon over.
NBC is weighing a related dilemma as it decides the fate of "Studio 60." The show is currently "on the bubble." Critics and hardcore fans love it, and will howl if NBC cancels it. But the network may pull the plug anyway, because it can't justify the show's business prospects.
Ratings are not good. Viewership for the show -- smartly written by "West Wing" creator Aaron Sorkin -- has fallen 37% since its premiere on Sept. 18 to about four million people, according to Nielsen Media Research. By contrast, its lead-in, "Heroes," draws more than eight million viewers. It's up against "Monday Night Football" on Walt Disney Co.'s ESPN, but NBC doesn't think that has much impact because "Studio 60" is more heavily watched by women. In fact, "Friday Night Lights," about high school football in Texas, did worse in the time slot this week, dropping 10% from the average of "Studio 60."
The show does attract a dream audience for advertisers. NBC says "Studio 60" draws the highest concentration of homes with incomes of $75,000 or more, and it is particularly popular among viewers with four years of college. In other words, "alphas." On a per-customer basis, advertisers pay more for them. "Studio 60" shouldn't have to match "Dancing With the Stars" to be successful.
But it doesn't work that way -- not yet, anyway. Broadcast television is still a game of mass, not class. As executives themselves like to point out, it's the one-big-tent nature of the traditional networks that can make them more appealing in a world where audiences are fragmenting into narrow tribes. Advertisers may covet a certain "quality" audience, but they can find it elsewhere, like the Internet. When they are spending the big bucks, they still need a certain critical mass.
The show's upscale audience certainly doesn't hurt. But overall ad revenue still depends mainly on size of audience. "If you are not going to deliver the ratings, I'm not going to pay you," says Laura Caraccioli-Davis, a senior vice president at Publicis Groupe's Starcom USA. And while NBC knows some people record the show on a DVR to watch later or catch an episode on the Web, its advertisers pay only for live ratings. (Adding viewers who record and play "Studio 60" back within seven days of the original airing bumps the show's weekly ratings by about 18%, Nielsen says.)
"Studio 60" might have been canceled already, in the trigger-happy world of network scheduling, except that NBC decided to pay a big price when it took on Mr. Sorkin, reasoning that it was worth taking a gamble that might produce a long-running megahit. It had to provide the show's producer, Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros, a guarantee of 13 episodes. Only six have aired so far, and NBC just placed an order for three more scripts.
But it also agreed to big budgets, and those high costs could hasten the show's demise. The series is packed with stars, including Matthew Perry, Ms. Peet and Bradley Whitford, and it films on a particularly lavish set. "Studio 60" costs about $3 million an episode to produce. NBC pays a license fee of about $2 million an episode -- high prices for a first-year show.
So the question is whether "Studio 60" lasts into 2007. NBC, already under financial scrutiny from parent General Electric Co. and fresh off announcing $750 million in budget cuts, is unlikely to keep the series running at its current price. The network wants Warner Bros. to reduce the license fee, according to people familiar with the situation. But Warner may be reluctant. The revenue prospects in overseas markets and reruns are iffy for a complex, serialized drama. The DVD market for TV shows, while promising, wouldn't make up the difference. The show does well on the Internet, but that, too, is still a small market.
Any license-fee talks must be completed by the end of November or Warner Bros. will be forced to halt production, all but ensuring the death of the series. An NBC spokeswoman declined to comment; a Warner Bros. spokeswoman said the studio never discusses license fees.
Mr. Sorkin was provided extensive creative control over the show's content, and "Studio 60" has delved deep into the intricacies of the television industry. Mitch Metcalf, NBC's scheduling chief, says Mr. Sorkin knows the show needs broadening. "He'll figure something out," Mr. Metcalf says. " 'The West Wing' didn't really kick into high gear until he wrote an attempted assassination at the end of season one that was classic cliff-hanger television."
Whenever a high-quality but ratings-challenged show faces cancellation, devoted fans start coming up with their own solutions. Online, fans have suggested everything from moving "Studio 60" to Friday night, where the competition is lighter, to lobbing the series to Time Warner's HBO, which has a revenue model that doesn't depend on ratings because it doesn't sell ads.
Moving the series to a less important time slot on Friday or Saturday night isn't an option. For starters, Warner Bros. built scheduling restrictions into NBC's licensing contract that would prevent a move to such undesirable real estate. And with advertiser interest lower on those nights, NBC would almost certainly lose money.
NBC also isn't exactly trumpeting its faith in the show. Kevin Reilly, NBC's president of entertainment, declined multiple requests to discuss the series and its direction. Mr. Sorkin wouldn't say what specific tweaks, if any, he plans to make to the series. In an email exchange, he said, "If this were a play we'd still be in previews. Sometimes I felt as if, after four years of 'The West Wing,' I was still learning how to do it better."
Mr. Sorkin also says "a lot of mistaken assumptions" have been made about "Studio 60." "You don't need to work in television to like it, it's not based on real people, and it's not hoping to change the world. It's a workplace drama with elements of romantic comedy."
But many Hollywood observers say there's a basic creative problem: The stakes aren't high enough. It's no coincidence that most successful TV dramas are about doctors and cops, who struggle with matters of life and death. Next to that, who cares about whether a TV show is canceled?
Quell
Heute kommt S60 wieder ganz normal, zumindest vorerst.